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Russian is past, Chinese is future?

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Red Raider
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United States
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Speaks: English*
Studies: German

 
 Message 81 of 150
03 June 2006 at 5:55pm | IP Logged 
Captain Haddock wrote:
Perhaps a historical analogy is in order:

America = Greece
China = Rome

China, with its enormous population, steady emigration, and growing
tourism, could by sheer numbers dominate the civilized world for the
next few centuries like Rome did as it gradually supplanted Greek culture.
(Hopefully, none of that nasty war stuff will be involved.)


Well, if you want to really get historical, the Greeks supplanted Rome. The Western Roman Empire fell in 476, and the Eastern Roman Empire, especially after Justinian, basically became a Greek Empire.

Captain Haddock wrote:

Nevertheless, the US and its culture will remain significant even it plays
second-fiddle one day (and it probably will).


It already is playing second fiddle, but not due to China.
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Red Raider
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 Message 82 of 150
03 June 2006 at 5:58pm | IP Logged 
Cthulhu wrote:

You can easily replace "China" with any other country on the planet besides the handful of English ones and come up with an equally true statement. And yet English is the nearly undisputed lingua franca at the present time.


But what does this have to do with Chinese? My statement that Chinese will never be a lingua franca is based on the difficulty for a non-native speaker to learn Chinese. It has nothing to do with the economics of China.

There is more to the lingua franca status than economics.
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victor
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 Message 83 of 150
03 June 2006 at 6:18pm | IP Logged 
I don't think the "easiness" of a language is really the really the reason why it becomes a lingua franca. English became a lingua franca because it is the language of two world powers in the last century. Each of them went around the world and whether intentionally or unintentionally, made it necessary for other people to speak their language, whether for political or economic reasons.

It is also a lingua franca because a mass of them moved to "new" continents.

The United States is the number one superpower. Its economic power and political influence is a huge incentive for people to learn English.

If we wanted easiness, we would just go for Indonesian.
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hagen
Triglot
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Germany
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 Message 84 of 150
04 June 2006 at 12:27pm | IP Logged 
Red Raider wrote:
If you are suggesting that Chinese can be picked up as a second language as easily as English, then I can't agree with you there.

From what I've seen I can't confirm that English is so easy to pick up as a second language. The fact that it is native language for you and closely related language for me shouldn't deceive us into ignoring that "easiness" is a concept very dependent on your point of view.

I already mentioned that the features of English you pointed out as "easy" are equally true for Chinese. Many others (with the notable exception of the writing system, which is still slightly easier for English) would compare similarly.

- Hagen

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Red Raider
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 Message 85 of 150
07 June 2006 at 9:19pm | IP Logged 
>English became a lingua franca because it is the language >of two world powers in the last century.

What two world powers, besides the U.S.? I don't think the U.K. was a world power in the last century. In the 18th and possibly the early 19th century, yes.

Chinese won't become a lingua franca just because they become a world power. Regardless of the capitalist direction China is taking, it is still a communist country. Also, they are not a superpower yet. They are currently just a regional power.

The U.S. became a superpower due to American innovations in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Innovations that were allowed to prosper in a communist-free society.

English possibly became a lingua franca simply because the international stage needed a second language, and English was indirectly chosen due to the relative ease of the language and America's influence.

I'd imagine that English is easier for a non-Asian with a non-Germanic mother tongue than Chinese.

China is larger economic powerhouse than Mexico right now. But most of the kids I know in America are learning Spanish, not Chinese. It's because Spanish is WAY easier.

Edited by Red Raider on 07 June 2006 at 9:21pm

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frenkeld
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 Message 86 of 150
07 June 2006 at 11:11pm | IP Logged 
Red Raider wrote:
English was indirectly chosen due to the relative ease of the language ...


Not a chance this was a factor. I doubt Russian is an easy language for Uzbeks, for example, but they studied and knew it in the Soviet days. Like we will be learning Mandarin if China supplants the West in a major way.

I am not at all sure this will happen, and, frankly, until China starts resembling a democracy, I hope it won't. However, if it does, we will all be learning Mandarin, easy or not. Like they are learning English right now, which anyone who's worked with enough people from South-East Asia knows is anything but easy for them.

The only possible counterpoint to all this is the hieroglyphic writing system, which significantly raises the asymmetry in the level of difficulty of learning each others languages, and which in (linguistic) evolutionary terms is a step back from an alphabet and will be resisted to a point if they don't switch to an alphabetic writing system at least for some types of publications. But only to a point.


Edited by frenkeld on 08 June 2006 at 12:23am

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lady_skywalker
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 Message 87 of 150
08 June 2006 at 1:03am | IP Logged 
frenkeld wrote:

The only possible counterpoint to all this is the hieroglyphic writing system, which significantly raises the asymmetry in the level of difficulty of learning each others languages, and which in (linguistic) evolutionary terms is a step back from an alphabet and will be resisted to a point if they don't switch to an alphabetic writing system at least for some types of publications. But only to a point.


I can't really see Chinese adapting to an alphabetic writing system simply because there are too many homophones (or whatever the term is). Characters help differentiate the meaning of words which would otherwise sound the same. Without them, you would not be able to make much sense of the text. Pinyin is useful for people to learn the tones and pronunciations of characters but is highly impractical as a writing system.

Edited by lady_skywalker on 08 June 2006 at 1:04am

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frenkeld
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 Message 88 of 150
08 June 2006 at 1:14am | IP Logged 
lady_skywalker wrote:
I can't really see Chinese adapting to an alphabetic writing system simply because there are too many homophones (or whatever the term is).


Is Vietnamese very different in this regard?

I was not thinking of them giving up on their writing system, but perhaps developing something easier for some targeted purposes of international nature. Say, if Chinese scientific enterprise supplanted the US and Europe in prestige, could they decide on a different writing system to attract foreign publications in their journals? Obviously, this is a very far out speculation.



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