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Russian is past, Chinese is future? | ||
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 Language Learning Forum : Philological Room |  | |
| dagojr Groupie United States Joined 5578 days ago 56 posts - 131 votes  Speaks: English* Studies: Russian | Message 121 of 150 26 June 2010 at 5:47pm | IP Logged | |||||
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It is of course extremely difficult to make predictions about the status of languages several years from now. Just look at how much the world has changed in the past 50 years! But it's hard to imagine either Russian or Chinese not being among the most important languages a few decades from now, even if their status relative to one another changes.
Perhaps I am a little biased because it is the language which I am studying, but I believe Russian will continue to be a very important language. Here are a few reasons why. *** It's so darn big! It's hard not to be an important when you're the national language of what is easily the biggest country in the world, one which is full of natural resources that the world craves, in particular oil, natural gas, and metals, though there are many others. *** It's not the 90s anymore. In fact, the Russian economy is experiencing strong growth. Russia's economy was of course a complete mess during the 90s, but at the same time, it's not the 90s anymore! It is of course one of the BRIC countries that are so frequently discussed today and predicted to experience robust growth over the next few decades. Its nominal GDP has increased more than even China's over the past decade according to the IMF (international monetary fund), and is predicted to continue to grow at a rapid rate (if you doubt this, go to imf.org and feel free to find the data yourself). According to Forbes it has 62 billionaires, which is more than any other G7 nation outside of the United States (I should add that China has 64, though Russia has more than any other nation besides these two). The Russian economy still has MANY problems, but it's not nearly as weak as many seem to believe it is. *** It's still used by tens of millions of people, including countries besides Russia. Over a dozen countries besides Russia have substantial Russian speaking minorities, and millions of people know it and use it as a second language. I noticed that when watching some of the news of the ethnic violence in Kyrgyzstan. Most of the people spoke Russian when interviewed. It's definitely still a world language by any definition. It's also worth noting that around a quarter of a billion people still speak the language today either as a first or second language. *** The worst of the demographic crisis appears to be over, and in fact Russia could experience a return to population growth under the right conditions. It's no secret that Russia's population has been shrinking for the past few years, and that can't bode well for the language, at least in terms of international influence. But the fertility rate bottomed out in 1999 and has been growing steadily ever since. Furthermore, Russia has a very unusual population pyramid, due mostly to the lingering affects of World War II. There is currently a population bulge of 20-25 year olds (you can find a graphic of the population pyramid on the Demographics of Russia page on wikipedia). If this age group decides that it is economically viable to start families, a return to population growth for the country would definitely be possible. *** Russia is opening up. This isn't the Russia of several decades ago, when it was one of the most secretive countries in the world. It has recently been pushing to remove visa requirements with the Europe Union, the government wants to encourage international investment, and it is on the verge of joining the WTO. The process is of course very slow, but as Russia becomes more integrated with the world community, it's hard to imagine its influence declining. *** In short, I don't think the Russian language is moving towards some sort of inevitable decline, and in fact will continue to be an important language in the foreseeable future. Edited by dagojr on 27 June 2010 at 1:41am 4 persons have voted this message useful | ||||||
| Gregy1727 Triglot Groupie United StatesRegistered users can see my Skype Name Joined 6524 days ago 98 posts - 117 votes Speaks: English*, Spanish, Afrikaans | Message 122 of 150 01 July 2010 at 3:23am | IP Logged | |||||
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This is quite silly really. So what, China's a growing superpower? Sure. The question is, how long will it take? If it takes 100 years for the economic super power of China to emerge in full, most of us probably won't be around to use the Mandarin we've learned.
You're going to need way more ambition for Chinese than just the peanut gallery speculation that it's one day going to be a super power. I Remember the big boom of Japanese learners in the 80s - it was the thing to do then because of the Japanese economy. In any case, it's funny that some people believe language learning to be the quick fix to securing a nice job where you get to travel a lot and use your language like a cool, savvy businessman. It's an illusion. As much as we all love learning languages, it's a soft skill that only enhances more prevalent, already-existing skills. If all it took was to know multiple language, the bilingual people of the world would get by quite fine without much of an education. You could learn all the Chinese you want in the world and still end up working at McDonalds if all you can do is speak Chinese. Most companies have in-house people people who are fluent in languages but also have experience in that company's area of operation or business. It's the combination that works for you, not the knowledge of one language over the other. 6 persons have voted this message useful | ||||||
| Marc Frisch Heptaglot Senior Member Germany Joined 6654 days ago 1001 posts - 1169 votes Speaks: German*, French, English, Spanish, Portuguese, Turkish, Italian Studies: Persian, Tamil | Message 123 of 150 27 July 2010 at 11:38pm | IP Logged | |||||
Yes, and Japan being the 3rd biggest economy in the world today, it was (and still is) definitely not the worst you can do to boost your career. 3 persons have voted this message useful | ||||||
| Juаn Senior Member Colombia Joined 5334 days ago 727 posts - 1830 votes Speaks: Spanish* | Message 124 of 150 27 July 2010 at 11:59pm | IP Logged | |||||
China is a superpower today. It just surpassed the United States as the world's biggest energy consumer. When the United States achieved this status a century ago it represented a seismic shift in world history, just as when Germany overtook France and England some decades earlier. There are plenty of questions regarding what direction will China take, but better become accustomed to being number 2 (or 3, if a united Europe ever stirs again). 2 persons have voted this message useful | ||||||
| frenkeld Diglot Senior Member United States Joined 6932 days ago 2042 posts - 2719 votes Speaks: Russian*, English Studies: German | Message 125 of 150 28 July 2010 at 1:09am | IP Logged | |||||
If one looks at the specifically linguistic implications of the rise of China, I find it quite difficult to decide if it is time to drop everything and study Mandarin. The reason is that it can take quite a while for the language of a rising power to reach commensurate dominance. Take German in 1925, the year when quantum mechanics was invented. It was still among the leading scientific languages at the time; its influence in science only started collapsing after Hitler came to power and the scientists started leaving. Without World War II English might have taken longer to reach the dominance it eventually came to enjoy, and one may even ask whether it would have ever reached such a high level of dominance. For all you know, French and German might have still enjoyed higher popularity today than they do. Assuming no catastrophes of that scale, the linguistic shifts, whatever they are, may proceed more slowly than one might imagine. Also, until the living standards in China start approaching the Western levels, the appeal of Mandarin may not fully mature. I don't pretend being able to predict the future status of Mandarin, but I don't as yet find it entirely certain. Edited by frenkeld on 29 July 2010 at 7:37am 2 persons have voted this message useful | ||||||
| Juаn Senior Member Colombia Joined 5334 days ago 727 posts - 1830 votes Speaks: Spanish* | Message 126 of 150 28 July 2010 at 1:46am | IP Logged | |||||
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Physics relocated across the Atlantic as much as a result of the changing needs and scale of doing physics -from an enthusiasts' laboratory to well-funded research institutes- as from the ravages of National Socialism. German physics was crippled since the end of the First World War when German scientists were ostracized; outside Poincaré French contributions to physics were not instrumental (other than the infamous "French rays" which only they were ever able to see).
You're right in the sense that no such shift is underway today, only that China has come to the position of emulating America's efforts in any field; that its society will ultimately prove more suitable to science and progress or not, that is what one wonders. As for Mandarin, from a "socio-political" point of view, it makes as much sense to learn it today as Russian in the 1950's. 1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| frenkeld Diglot Senior Member United States Joined 6932 days ago 2042 posts - 2719 votes Speaks: Russian*, English Studies: German | Message 127 of 150 28 July 2010 at 2:20am | IP Logged | |||||
Is this meant as a double entendre?
I am not sure this is true of theoretical physics, but in any case, you are tying the decline of German in science to a catastrophic event, World War I, which was precisely my point - absent such calamity, it would have likely taken longer for German to see its status diminished. Edited by frenkeld on 28 July 2010 at 2:28am 1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| Juаn Senior Member Colombia Joined 5334 days ago 727 posts - 1830 votes Speaks: Spanish* | Message 128 of 150 28 July 2010 at 4:34am | IP Logged | |||||
Ask me again in forty years.
Germany suffered a series of calamities that contributed to its decline, but American physics displaced not just German physics, but British, Scandinavian, Dutch and generally European production. Conditions for doing physics simply had changed, and the United States and Russia, with large commitments of resources and prestige, were better suited for the new era. In our case though, we're not dealing with a change of paradigm in favor of China, only with the fact that it has caught up with the U.S.. However, unlike the previous shift from Europe to America and Russia, given the very dissimilar nature both of China's and America's societies as well as their possibilities, it may well turn out to mean the former. 1 person has voted this message useful |
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