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Foreign languages in the EU | ||
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 Language Learning Forum : General discussion |  | |
| MarcoLeal Groupie Portugal Joined 4833 days ago 58 posts - 104 votes  Speaks: Portuguese* | Message 17 of 34 24 July 2014 at 10:33pm | IP Logged | |||||
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@Luso
You raise valid points and you're definitely in a position to be better informed about this subject than I am so I really appreciate your input. Still it seems to me that the numbers don't add up. 15% means 1.5 million people. For the reasons I discussed in previous posts (in short: reduced access to education in times when French was the primary choice, time elapsed since then, overwhelming preference towards English in generations that have had more opportunities to get educated, usefulness of English nowadays) this seems to be a very tough number to match. I'll give you the example of my parents: They were both born in the early 60s. My father (like most people of his age) dropped out of school after the 4th grade. My mother on the other hand went on to become a school teacher, took several years of French and even she speaks basically no French today because its been 40 years and she never had to use it after leaving high school. To be honest though, what I'm even more skeptical about is the fact that according to this study English (27%) has a less than 2:1 lead. Maybe you're right and I'm biased but this is completely at odds with my experience. I would sooner believe a 10:1 ratio. @Serpent I understand your point but it just so happens that most immigrants in Portugal come mostly from either Brazil, former Portuguese colonies in Africa or Eastern Europe. In the former 2 cases people already speak Portuguese and in the 3rd French is also not used. In fact these immigrants are remarkable in how quickly they adapt to Portugal and how fast they learn Portuguese to a very good level. 1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| Luso Hexaglot Senior Member Portugal Joined 6060 days ago 819 posts - 1812 votes Speaks: Portuguese*, French, EnglishC2, GermanB1, Italian, Spanish Studies: Sanskrit, Arabic (classical) | Message 18 of 34 24 July 2014 at 11:16pm | IP Logged | |||||
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From my previous post, I believe we could arrive at the ballpark (for French). After that, it's just a question of measurement. The values for English seem very low, though. No argument there.
Anyway, I won't defend the study. Some of the variation figures (page 15) seem a bit fishy. Remember, we're comparing 2012 to 2005, if I'm not mistaken. I can accept upward tendencies (bravo Austria), even if some seem exaggerated. But some of the downward ones are too abrupt to be true IMHO. 1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| Serpent Octoglot Senior Member Russian Federation serpent-849.livejour Joined 6596 days ago 9753 posts - 15779 votes 4 sounds Speaks: Russian*, English, FinnishC1, Latin, German, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese Studies: Danish, Romanian, Polish, Belarusian, Ukrainian, Croatian, Slovenian, Catalan, Czech, Galician, Dutch, Swedish | Message 19 of 34 24 July 2014 at 11:53pm | IP Logged | |||||
I know, yes. But especially in Africa, isn't French an important language? And some Eastern Europeans are likely to choose Portugal because they already know some French or Spanish. That's especially an advantage for Romanians. Edited by Serpent on 24 July 2014 at 11:53pm 1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| MarcoLeal Groupie Portugal Joined 4833 days ago 58 posts - 104 votes Speaks: Portuguese* | Message 20 of 34 25 July 2014 at 1:34am | IP Logged | |||||
I'm sure you'll agree that important is a vague term. In Africa as a whole sure, because there are many countries where it is an official language. Outside these countries, however, not really. Certainly not in Angola, Mozambique, Cape Verde, São Tome and Principe or Guinea Bissau in statistically relevant terms.
Language is secondary to other factors like having family, friends or acquaintances in a given country or finding a job through an employment agency that happens to be outsourcing to that particular place. These are the real reasons Eastern Europeans come to Portugal. If you are a Romanian or a Moldovan who can speak French and no such practical reasons apply to your case then why would you not just go to a French speaking country where you wouldn't have to learn any new language and where your overall prospects are better? Here's a fact that should illustrate what I mean: There are many more Ukrainians in Portugal than there are Romanians and Moldovans combined. Besides, even if language were the deciding factor, the impact of these two groups of immigrants is almost negligible. According to the figures here the combined number of Romanians and Moldovans in Portugal went from roughly 200 in 1999 to just under 35000 in 2007. Assuming it grew by another 35000 since then (the economic crisis has actually driven many immigrants back home so it's not likely) that would make 70000 in 2014. Even if the overwhelming majority of these spoke French, that wouldn't even make 5% of the 1.5 million French speakers that this study estimates Portugal to have. 1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| Zireael Triglot Senior Member Poland Joined 4650 days ago 518 posts - 636 votes Speaks: Polish*, EnglishB2, Spanish Studies: German, Sign Language, Tok Pisin, Arabic (Yemeni), Old English | Message 21 of 34 25 July 2014 at 3:55pm | IP Logged | |||||
I think that's the crux of the matter. 1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| Serpent Octoglot Senior Member Russian Federation serpent-849.livejour Joined 6596 days ago 9753 posts - 15779 votes 4 sounds Speaks: Russian*, English, FinnishC1, Latin, German, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese Studies: Danish, Romanian, Polish, Belarusian, Ukrainian, Croatian, Slovenian, Catalan, Czech, Galician, Dutch, Swedish | Message 22 of 34 25 July 2014 at 5:54pm | IP Logged | |||||
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I think we're all likely to exaggerate the importance of specific examples we know :)
2 persons have voted this message useful | ||||||
| rdearman Senior Member United Kingdom rdearman.orgRegistered users can see my Skype Name Joined 5235 days ago 881 posts - 1812 votes Speaks: English* Studies: Italian, French, Mandarin | Message 23 of 34 25 July 2014 at 8:51pm | IP Logged | |||||
I don't know. Taking the UK as an example. With a population of 63.30 million people, to get a 15% margin of error and a confidence level of 95% in the results I only need a sample size of 43 for the result to be statistically significant. So given I know 43+ people then I can confidently use my specific examples with a large degree of certainty. Basically this means if I take the sample of 43 people I know, and find the percentage of them which speak French as a 2nd language, then I can extrapolate that percentage to the entire population of the UK +/- 15%. But as Mark Twain wrote: "'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'" 2 persons have voted this message useful | ||||||
| luke Diglot Senior Member United States Joined 7204 days ago 3133 posts - 4351 votes Speaks: English*, Spanish Studies: Esperanto, French | Message 24 of 34 25 July 2014 at 9:31pm | IP Logged | |||||
How many people are in your building? 1 person has voted this message useful |
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