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Will Korean catch up to Japanese? | ||
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 Language Learning Forum : Specific Languages |  | |
| Raincrowlee Tetraglot Senior Member United States Joined 6703 days ago 621 posts - 808 votes  Speaks: English*, Mandarin, Korean, French Studies: Indonesian, Japanese | Message 41 of 54 05 March 2010 at 1:59pm | IP Logged | |||||
BTW, I went to a lecture last night by a Japanese scholar who brought along the predictions for growth of Asian GDPs by purchasing power parity (according to the Japanese Center for Economic Research), and their prediction is for S Korea to remain at less than half the GDP of Japan for at least the next 40 years, apparently without unification with N Korea, which would hamper its economy. This same professor claimed that Japan is destined to be a mid-sized economy in the next 40 years. 2 persons have voted this message useful | ||||||
| lichtrausch Triglot Senior Member United States Joined 5961 days ago 525 posts - 1072 votes Speaks: English*, German, Japanese Studies: Korean, Mandarin | Message 42 of 54 05 March 2010 at 8:30pm | IP Logged | |||||
China has been investing billions of dollars in city planning, infrastructure, water supply, etc. over the past decade. There are a lot of huge problems so it takes time to solve them. 1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| aquablue Senior Member United States Joined 6383 days ago 150 posts - 172 votes Speaks: English* Studies: French, Mandarin | Message 43 of 54 05 March 2010 at 9:48pm | IP Logged | |||||
GDP/Capita though is a different story...Korea could be richer than Japan according to the Goldman Sachs study by 2035. However, it is just a projection. Also from their projections, Japan will remain wealthy, but will remain below Germany, France, UK, USA, and Russia, etc by 2050 but above China, Brazil and India. Even Mexico is projected to be just below Japan and is projected at being a wealthier per capita nation than Brazil. From the same study, in terms of nominal GDP. Japan will remain a relatively lrage economic nation at around 6+ trillion dollars in GDP. However, it will be eclipsed by China at 70 trillion, Russia, India, Mexico, Indonesia and Brazil. It will remain ahead of the UK, Germany, France, Korea, Italy, etc.. Edited by aquablue on 05 March 2010 at 9:53pm 2 persons have voted this message useful | ||||||
| Captain Haddock Diglot Senior Member Japan kanjicabinet.tumblr. Joined 6769 days ago 2282 posts - 2814 votes Speaks: English*, Japanese Studies: French, Korean, Ancient Greek | Message 44 of 54 06 March 2010 at 1:57am | IP Logged | |||||
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Anyone who thinks Indonesia and India are going to overtake Japan in the foreseeable future is making wild
guesses if you ask me. The only thing we know about trends for certain — both demographic and economic — is that they keep changing. 1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| Raincrowlee Tetraglot Senior Member United States Joined 6703 days ago 621 posts - 808 votes Speaks: English*, Mandarin, Korean, French Studies: Indonesian, Japanese | Message 45 of 54 06 March 2010 at 2:10am | IP Logged | |||||
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I saw a Price Waterhouse Cooper report when I was trying to answer my own question, and it seemed to indicate that Korea would just be edging out Japan in GDP/capita in 2050. That's a bit of a wait to justify learning the language now. :)
And I'm curious how they factor in the problems resulting from unification. I've heard it said that Germany is still feeling the effects of reunification now, and E Germany's economy was much more robust that N Korea's would likely ever be in the future. There's also the question of how much of that is the result of Japan's shrinking and how much S Korea growing. One bit in the report mentioned that Korea has a demographics problem similar to Japan and China (and the EU): not enough young people. This is not to say Korea's star isn't on the rise. I think all predictions are that S Korea (or Korea) will continue to develop and grow its economy for the decades to come, and would stand to benefit from Asian economic integration since it already has world-class companies and an educated, cosmopolitan labor force. I just think that it's destined to be a mid-sized economy and will only expand past Japan because Japan's future is to be a mid-sized economy as well. They will both likely be important trend setters in Asia, but not world leaders. @Haddock: I agree with you about Indonesia, but a lot of people are predicting that India will have a large GDP, just with a lousy GDP/capita. They have a lot of hurdles to overcome, but the large number of poor people means that they will have a large pool of cheap labor for many years to come, something that even China has a more limited supply of. Edited by Raincrowlee on 06 March 2010 at 2:12am 1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| aquablue Senior Member United States Joined 6383 days ago 150 posts - 172 votes Speaks: English* Studies: French, Mandarin | Message 46 of 54 06 March 2010 at 2:56am | IP Logged | |||||
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India's GDP will easily surpass Japan's due to their massive population.
1 person has voted this message useful | ||||||
| Captain Haddock Diglot Senior Member Japan kanjicabinet.tumblr. Joined 6769 days ago 2282 posts - 2814 votes Speaks: English*, Japanese Studies: French, Korean, Ancient Greek | Message 47 of 54 06 March 2010 at 4:50am | IP Logged | |||||
If it were so easy, they would have done so already. 2 persons have voted this message useful | ||||||
| Raincrowlee Tetraglot Senior Member United States Joined 6703 days ago 621 posts - 808 votes Speaks: English*, Mandarin, Korean, French Studies: Indonesian, Japanese | Message 48 of 54 06 March 2010 at 1:48pm | IP Logged | |||||
The problem was that India was unwilling to change their economic system to force companies to be competitive on the global market. I had a class about development economics, and India was one of the countries we studied, and up until probably the 90s they still thought that they could supply everything for their own needs and put up very high tariff walls and other forms of trade protection. That meant they made their own cars, own computers, own everything without help from the technology and expertise available on the world market. That means they lagged behind the East Asian countries that opened themselves to the world market and FDI. Since the 90s, India has been trying to change its policies to be able to integrate itself into the world market, tap into high level expertise and import the best technology, following the path marked out by Japan and the Asian Tigers. It's been slow going because they don't have the most efficient government, but it's made for a much better growth rate. Keeping with this strategy, it is likely inevitable that India will have a rocking GDP because they have such a large pool of cheap labor to fuel manufacturing, just as China has been able to do for the past 30 years. Just like China, they will also have massive inequalities in wealth distribution, which will make their GDP/capita quite poor. 1 person has voted this message useful |
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