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Top 10 Languages - Rankings in 2050 | ||
Tags: Language Importance | ||
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 Language Learning Forum : General discussion |  | |
| Kronos Diglot Senior Member Germany Joined 5062 days ago 186 posts - 452 votes  Speaks: German*, English | Message 89 of 108 31 January 2011 at 2:31am | IP Logged | ||
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1. English
2. Spanish 3. French 4. Arabic 5. Russian 6. Portuguese Ranking of languages makes sense only if we know the criterion or criteria on which the ranking is based. This might be numbers of speakers, political or economic significance, its spread around the world, cultural impact, or other factors. I am ranking here "global languages" - those languages that are well-known and spoken in many countries around the world and play a major role in global politics, business and cultural life. The only true global language, the one who fulfils all these criteria, is English. It is followed, at a large distance, by French and Spanish. In the 18th and 19th centuries French held the first rank, in the 20th century only second, and by 2050 it will probably have been relegated to third rank, mainly due to the rise of Spanish. As has been noted in this thread, Spanish is now gradually replacing French as second choice in foreign language acquisition in schools of several countries, which really indicates something like a cultural shift. Apart from this my proposed ranking for 2050 is identical to that for the present. Then there are three others which may not be really global, but nevertheless truly international languages on a grand scale. Arabic is the main language in great parts of the Islamic world and provides a sort of cultural link between those countries and also among Muslims living in other parts of the world. Russian as the language of a former superpower still plays a role, and outside of Russia continues to be spoken or known by many people in the periphery of the former Soviet territory which includes great parts of Eastern Europe and Middle Asia. Portuguese is the native language of several countries in at least three continents, though outside South America on a rather minor scale. I did not include any of the Chinese languages in the list, because their status is, and probably will remain, rather that of regional languages, as is that of Japanese - which after decades of dizzying economic growth, export, a considerable number of emigrants, and intensive international travel is still of hardly any discernible significance outside Southeast Asia apart from some minor cultural pursuits. 3 persons have voted this message useful | |||
| SamD Triglot Senior Member United States Joined 6460 days ago 823 posts - 987 votes Speaks: English*, Spanish, French Studies: Portuguese, Norwegian | Message 90 of 108 31 January 2011 at 10:40pm | IP Logged | ||
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Let's not forget: many of the people who will be speaking those languages in 2050 are alive in 2011 and speaking them today. Granted, they'll all be at least 39 or 40 years old but in many cases they'll be the parents of the younger speakers of those languages.
Most languages have many more native speakers than speakers as a second language. 1 person has voted this message useful | |||
| Sennin Senior Member Bulgaria Joined 5835 days ago 1457 posts - 1759 votes 5 sounds | Message 91 of 108 01 February 2011 at 1:01pm | IP Logged | ||
If you mean anime and video games, then I'm not sure "minor" is the appropriate word here. 2 persons have voted this message useful | |||
| Ichiro Triglot Senior Member United Kingdom Joined 6010 days ago 111 posts - 152 votes Speaks: English*, Japanese, French Studies: Spanish, Mandarin, Korean, Malay | Message 92 of 108 01 February 2011 at 3:50pm | IP Logged | ||
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No, these are definitely minor pursuits.
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| Sennin Senior Member Bulgaria Joined 5835 days ago 1457 posts - 1759 votes 5 sounds | Message 93 of 108 04 February 2011 at 4:16pm | IP Logged | ||
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Ichiro, "minor" pursuits that are immensly popular in the whole world. Anime is so influential even American cartoons are becoming anime-like. Anyway, here's one possible reason Chinese won't ever be the N1 language:
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/02/01/video-chinas-pro perty-bubble Essentially, the guy is saying that the current boom in the Chinese economy is just a gigantic bubble. China could avoid a disaster if it manages to channel that "massive hidden debt" he's talking about, but it is by no means a certainty. Edited by Sennin on 04 February 2011 at 4:21pm 2 persons have voted this message useful | |||
| Marc Frisch Heptaglot Senior Member Germany Joined 6466 days ago 1001 posts - 1169 votes Speaks: German*, French, English, Spanish, Portuguese, Turkish, Italian Studies: Persian, Tamil | Message 94 of 108 24 February 2011 at 2:55pm | IP Logged | ||
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The Steinke Index gives an estimation for the economic importance of languages in 2025 (the ranking is based on the projected GDP of countries using the languages):
1) English 2) Chinese 3) Japanese 4) Spanish 5) German 6) French 7) Italian 8) Russian 9) Portuguese 10) Korean 11) Arabic 12) Dutch I think 2050 is too far away to make any safe predictions. A lot can happen in 40 years: imagine what someone in 1970 would have predicted for 2010, there is no way that he would have imagined Korean to make the top ten in 2010, since South Korea was a dirt-poor country back then. There are some really big countries like Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, or the Philippines which no one really has on their list but which could make a huge difference if any of them experienced a similar growth in the next decades. Also, the future of some big languages like Spanish, French, and Arabic is rather uncertain. It is very likely that all of them will be very influential, but it's not at all clear to what extent. In my opinion, French has a huge potential for growth in Africa. 4 persons have voted this message useful | |||
| Darklight1216 Diglot Senior Member United StatesRegistered users can see my Skype Name Joined 4901 days ago 411 posts - 639 votes Speaks: English*, French Studies: German | Message 95 of 108 25 February 2011 at 4:22am | IP Logged | ||
Spreading French would be awesome, but I'd be fine with simply avoiding Spanish. Then I would have someplace nearby to flee to when the Spanish language infestation reaches a crtical point. Does anyone remember how people used to say that sun never set on the British Empire? Unless China goes forth and conquers I think it's going to have a hard time passing English. Edited by Darklight1216 on 25 February 2011 at 4:23am 1 person has voted this message useful | |||
| Maks Newbie Croatia Joined 4812 days ago 15 posts - 9 votes | Message 96 of 108 08 March 2011 at 1:33pm | IP Logged | ||
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TOP 100 RANG LANGUAGES:
http://www.translated.net/en/languages-that-matter 1 person has voted this message useful |
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