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Top 10 Languages - Rankings in 2050 | ||
Tags: Language Importance | ||
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 Language Learning Forum : General discussion |  | |
| dagojr Groupie United States Joined 5590 days ago 56 posts - 131 votes  Speaks: English* Studies: Russian | Message 1 of 108 29 September 2009 at 8:17pm | IP Logged | ||
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Just like the title says. What do you think will be the top 10 languages in 2050?
I know, I know. I can already hear some of the responses to this. "I think Washo is the most important language, how could you argue otherwise?" or "This question is stupid, because who is to say that one language is more important than another?" Well, I understand the argument. Certainly it is very difficult to rank languages, and it of course will be highly dependent on the methodology selected. But let's be serious now. Not to pick on Washo, but I think it's safe to say that, for example, any reasonable person would agree that in 2050, English will be a more important language than Washo, at least on a global scale. I'd also like to add that I am NOT a language expert. My one and only research tool was this computer and the internet. So if you want to call me an idiot, then go ahead. In fact, I encourage it. Just be sure to include your own list at the end of your flame. ;) And feel free to use any methodology you want. Anyway, I don't have an exact methodology here in making this list. I tried to combine economic strength (partly from Goldman Sachs BRIC thesis), population size (from various population projections easily found online), status as a lingua franca and literacy in creating this list. Below are each of my choices, along with a short justification for each of my rankings. 1) English - the safe choice. Only Mandarin, under the best possible circumstances, could challenge its position here. But English is more widely spoken around the world, and it's already widely used as a lingua franca, and it is a major language in the United States and India, both predicted to be among the three biggest economies in 2050 according to Goldman Sachs. Furthermore, speakers of Indo-European languages (the largest language family) are likely to prefer using and learning English as a language of communication over Mandarin for the simple fact that it will be easier for them to learn. 2) Mandarin Chinese - OK, I don't think Mandarin will supplant English, I think you get my point now. But it's still pretty darned important. It has the turbocharged Chinese economy behind it. China has the most cell phone users, it has the most internet users, and it will easily be the largest exporter in 2050. Oh, and Mandarin Chinese is easily the most used language in the world today. 3) Spanish - If it hasn't replaced French as the most important Romance language today, it almost certainly will by 2050. The language is widely used in Latin America, and the region is growing and modernizing, though not as fast as China. In the past, parts of Latin America were economically depressed or depressing, but as a whole the region has turned the corner. That's not to say that it is without problems (two examples include poor distribution of wealth and poor education), but it seems that the Latin American economy and population will continue to grow, and so will the influence of Spanish. 4) Portuguese - I know, I know, some of you are probably rolling your eyes over this one, and I guess this is a bit of a dark-horse pick. Portuguese of course is on here because it is the language of Brazil. In the past, it has faced many of the same problems that Spanish had, which are already mentioned above. But Brazil, at least for now, is experiencing robust economic growth, and its population continues to grow. It's also spoken in parts of Europe, Southern Africa, and Asia, though it certainly doesn't have the global lingua franca status of, say, English or French, but I think the large Portuguese-speaking population and its economic growth make up for this. With that said though, I won't be terribly surprised if, come 2050, Portuguese's influence doesn't manifest. 5) Russian - OK, OK, that's two unconventional picks in a row, but I believe I can justify this one too. Russian does have several factors working against it. Its population is declining, the economies of many Russian-speaking countries took a big hit in the 90s, and many are skeptical about the prospects of these countries ever fully recovering (though not all agree, as it is the R in the BRIC). But there are several factors working it its favor. Russian-speaking areas cover a lot of, well, area. There are a lot of natural resources, including oil and, in particular, natural gas. Also, there are still a lot of people who speak Russian and it's still used as a lingua franca in former Soviet states. Russian speakers are well-educated (collectively speaking, when compared to, say, Bengali or Arabic speakers), and under the right circumstances, they would be ready to participate in a modern post-industrial world. 6) Arabic - I can't decide if Arabic is too high, too low, or in just the right spot on this list. Much of the population is illiterate, and many only speak a local dialect (a much-cited example is that Moroccan Arabic speakers usually cannot communicate with Levantine Arabic speakers). Parts of the Arabic-speaking world are flush with oil money, but most Arabic speakers are still poor. But Arabic in its various forms is still widely spoken, and it is the official language of many countries, many of which have rapidly-growing populations. Even if it is only spoken well by the well-educated, Modern Standard Arabic is used in many countries, and if education becomes more available by 2050, a more standardized, widely-used form of Arabic might emerge. 7) Hindi - One of the most-spoken languages in the world. Since it is primarily spoken only in the Indian subcontinent, it doesn't have much use as a lingua franca outside of India. In fact, even in India itself, English is often used as a lingua franca instead. Furthermore many Hindi speakers are also illiterate and poor. However, India is experiencing high economic growth, and will be one of the biggest economies in the world in 2050. Urdu, which is mutually intelligible with Hindi, is also a widely-spoken language and important in Pakistan. 8) Malay/Indonesian - Another unconventional pick. A widely-used language in Southeastern Asia. It has a large population base, and while Indonesia is a young democracy, it appears to be stable for now, and the country appears to be laying the groundwork for robust economic growth. It is also widely spoken in areas outside of Malaysia and Indonesia. As with Portuguese and Brazil, the importance Indonesian is highly dependent on Indonesia itself. 9)French - The decline of the status of the French language in the past few decades is well known, but it's still a very important language, and will continue to be. It's the official language in dozens of countries, but the majority of these are poor and economically depressed, and show little potential for growth. France is a large, important economy today, and it will continue to be, but other growing economies (China, India, Brazil, Mexico, just to name a few) are likely to shrink its relative importance. It is ranked higher than German primarily because of its status as a lingua franca. 10) German - It's influence is essentially isolated to Europe, and the German-speaking population is declining, but Germany is currently the most-spoken language in the European Union and the biggest economy in Europe, and that has to count for something. However, since so many German speakers also speak English well, this somewhat diminishes the value of learning German, and hence diminishes the importance of the German language. Edited by dagojr on 30 September 2009 at 3:22am 9 persons have voted this message useful | |||
| rggg Heptaglot Senior Member Mexico Joined 6326 days ago 373 posts - 426 votes Speaks: Spanish*, English, French, Italian, Portuguese, Indonesian, Malay Studies: Romanian, Catalan, Greek, German, Swedish | Message 2 of 108 29 September 2009 at 9:42pm | IP Logged | ||
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Nice ...... I speak four and study two out of the ten languages listed ..... I need to learn Mandarin, Arabic and Russian in the next 40 years though =).
Jokes aside ...... Hindi? People I know, who are working with Indian software developers, say they communicate all the time in English (in person, or in web conferences with people in India, etc.) and that they don't feel they need to learn Hindi at all. Anyway, regarding your original question: only time will tell .... but what about Japanese? 1 person has voted this message useful | |||
| Levi Pentaglot Senior Member United States Joined 5568 days ago 2268 posts - 3328 votes Speaks: English*, French, Esperanto, German, Spanish Studies: Russian, Dutch, Portuguese, Mandarin, Japanese, Italian | Message 3 of 108 29 September 2009 at 10:14pm | IP Logged | ||
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1) Esperanto
2) Sumerian 3) Basque 4) Hawaiian 5) Turkmen 6) Quechua 7) Lojban 8) Icelandic 9) Ainu 10) Tok Pisin Okay, seriously though, I agree with your assessment that English, Mandarin and Spanish will probably be the three most important world languages by 2050. In fact I would argue they already are. But I expect the influence of all three to grow a lot and don't see any contenders that are likely to come anywhere close to them in global importance. Arabic maybe, but only under the best of circumstances for the Arab world. 5 persons have voted this message useful | |||
| Sennin Senior Member Bulgaria Joined 6035 days ago 1457 posts - 1759 votes 5 sounds | Message 4 of 108 29 September 2009 at 10:41pm | IP Logged | ||
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There's also the possibility that Klingon may become lingua franca on Earth after a massive invasion of the Klingon Empire. The list will then be truncated by means of cutting off the tongues of those heretics who dare speak any other language.
17 persons have voted this message useful | |||
| milootis10 Newbie United States Joined 5631 days ago 9 posts - 14 votes Speaks: English* Studies: French, Mandarin, Japanese | Message 5 of 108 29 September 2009 at 10:56pm | IP Logged | ||
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I agree with most of the languages, however why isn't Japanese or Korean on the list?
1. English 2. Mandarin Chinese 3. Spanish 4. Arabic 5. Japanese/Korean 6. Japanese/Korean 7. Russian 8. French 9. German 10. Hindi If Korea unites within the next 41 years, I think that Korean will have a greater usefulness in the world. I don't think that Malay/Indonesian will be very useful, even though it is spoken in one of the largest countries in the world. 6 persons have voted this message useful | |||
| Juan M. Senior Member Colombia Joined 5900 days ago 460 posts - 597 votes | Message 6 of 108 29 September 2009 at 11:04pm | IP Logged | ||
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India is bound to surpass China sometime this century as the most populous nation, so if they ever manage to establish a national language, it would replace Chinese as the most widely-spoken tongue. While the above requirement seems doubtful today, Hindi is in any case bound to increase its importance, not the other way around as you suggest.
Second, Russia is undergoing a demographic implosion, so its language will almost certainly decrease in number of speakers as well. Plus, it has never been well-received and widely adopted beyond the borders of its homeland. People also ascribe an exaggerated importance to Brazil. Finally, you forget Bengali. 3 persons have voted this message useful | |||
| dagojr Groupie United States Joined 5590 days ago 56 posts - 131 votes Speaks: English* Studies: Russian | Message 7 of 108 30 September 2009 at 12:49am | IP Logged | ||
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Regarding some of the responses.
A few of you have called me out on not including Japanese on the list. Maybe I should have included it, and I seriously considered adding it. I'm having second thoughts about not including it, but here was my justification. 1) Isolation - It's only widely spoken in Japan, and very few can speak it fluently as a second language. 2) Demographic Shrink - Japan has a decent-sized population (Japanese is around the 10th most-spoken language, depending on which list you use), but it has a low birth rate, and the number of Japanese speakers is shrinking because of it. But what Japan has going for it is its big, wealthy economy. The economy of Japan is a bit bigger than that of the German- or French-speaking world, but the latter two languages are more widely used outside of their home countries and are more often studied as a second language, and hence there are more often used as a language of communication. Therefore, I decided to include French and German, but cut out Japanese. Maybe that was a bad decision, but at least you can see my thought process. Furthermore, I based a lot of my economic forecasting on the BRIC projections. I'm not an economist, so I don't know if these projections are right or not. I've provided a link below. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC#BRIC_in_future In short, perhaps it was a mistake for me to rank Portuguese and Russian so highly, but I did so largely based on the size of their projected economies according to this list. Their economies aren't that big right now, but they are projected to be in the future. In any case, I've probably said too much. I started this thread more to hear other people's opinions than to justify my own ranking, but some people seemed a little puzzled about my selections, so I decided that I should try to explain them a little better here. Edited by dagojr on 30 September 2009 at 12:55am 3 persons have voted this message useful | |||
| Juan M. Senior Member Colombia Joined 5900 days ago 460 posts - 597 votes | Message 8 of 108 30 September 2009 at 1:11am | IP Logged | ||
Those estimates appear senseless to me. I wouldn't take them too seriously. 3 persons have voted this message useful |
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