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Top 10 Languages - Rankings in 2050

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Huliganov
Octoglot
Senior Member
Poland
huliganov.tvRegistered users can see my Skype Name
Joined 5144 days ago

91 posts - 304 votes 
Speaks: English*, Polish, French, German, Russian, Spanish, Esperanto, Czech
Studies: Romanian, Turkish, Mandarin, Japanese, Hungarian

 
 Message 81 of 108
14 January 2011 at 12:05pm | IP Logged 
I saw this in the Telegraph today, which may have some relevance on Japanese's position in 50 years time.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8257400 /Third-of-young-Japanese-men-not-interested-in-sex.html

If a third of Japanese men are not interested in sex, then as long as that doesn't also apply to their ladies too, I'd say it was a very good reason for Western men to learn it so as to step into the breach more easily!

I don't believe it, anyway. Any young man who says he is not interested in sex is either lying to the survey person or to himself.

Unless what was meant was "I'm not 'interested' ... I'm fascinated!"

We all know what "hentai" means - are they just trying to appear the 'hantai' of 'hentai'?


2 persons have voted this message useful



Huliganov
Octoglot
Senior Member
Poland
huliganov.tvRegistered users can see my Skype Name
Joined 5144 days ago

91 posts - 304 votes 
Speaks: English*, Polish, French, German, Russian, Spanish, Esperanto, Czech
Studies: Romanian, Turkish, Mandarin, Japanese, Hungarian

 
 Message 82 of 108
14 January 2011 at 12:07pm | IP Logged 
dbruggeman wrote:



It's entirely up to you, but I can tell you that my kid is fluent in three and is
learning three more at ten years of age.

You don't get that from school. In fact you can't be sure of coming out of school with
one single foreign language to usable level.

One very nice way to cripple your children mentally is to rely on others to teach them
and not provide an example of lifelong learning and the joy of learning at home.

But like I say, it's up to you. God didn't give me your children to look after, he gave
me mine.
[/QUOTE]

This is impressive. What 3 languages does your child already know and what 3 are they
learning?

[/QUOTE]

English, Polish and Russian fluent, learning French, German and Japanese.
She's also getting pretty advanced on the piano.

3 persons have voted this message useful



vilas
Pentaglot
Senior Member
Italy
Joined 6749 days ago

531 posts - 722 votes 
Speaks: Spanish, Italian*, English, French, Portuguese

 
 Message 83 of 108
14 January 2011 at 1:33pm | IP Logged 
.

But you can still get pasta anywhere. They kept that.[/QUOTE]


But it is not a good pasta.
1 person has voted this message useful



vilas
Pentaglot
Senior Member
Italy
Joined 6749 days ago

531 posts - 722 votes 
Speaks: Spanish, Italian*, English, French, Portuguese

 
 Message 84 of 108
14 January 2011 at 1:37pm | IP Logged 
polyglHot wrote:
Italian..? Please, that language will stay within it's borders.


Italian is the language of the Roman Catholic Church.
If you want to become a Pope you have to learn it!
1 person has voted this message useful



robsolete
Diglot
Senior Member
United States
Joined 5174 days ago

191 posts - 428 votes 
Speaks: English*, Spanish
Studies: French, Russian, Arabic (Written), Mandarin

 
 Message 85 of 108
14 January 2011 at 7:06pm | IP Logged 
vilas wrote:
.

But you can still get pasta anywhere. They kept that.



But it is not a good pasta. [/QUOTE]

The average Italian makes $27,000 USD per year.

The average Ethiopian makes $760.

Given these numbers, I'm not going to fault the Ethiopians for not buying the same
quality of pasta. Especially when they have so much awesome injera and wot lying
around.
2 persons have voted this message useful



robsolete
Diglot
Senior Member
United States
Joined 5174 days ago

191 posts - 428 votes 
Speaks: English*, Spanish
Studies: French, Russian, Arabic (Written), Mandarin

 
 Message 86 of 108
14 January 2011 at 7:41pm | IP Logged 
Huliganov wrote:

I don't recall anyone writing in fear. I was one of the people who outlined the power
of the Chinese economy, but the question was which will be the top languages. The top
languages go hand in hand with the top economies because people want to do business,
they want to research and be in the vanguard of knowledge. These things are possible
with the languages of big economies. China will be the leading economy by 2050 and
therefore the reasons why America encouraged everyone to learn English will encourage
everyone then to learn Chinese.

I'm not sure that Americans would like to think that it was fear that made people
learn English, but rather the admiration of success and the search for opportunities. I
believe that Europeans and Americans will be economically migrating to China to find a
better life in 2050 and some already are. That's not fear, it's the same motivations
that applied to the world's push to learn English during the time of American world
leadership in the time from the end of the second world war to the inauguration of
Barack Obama.

You get pretty sarcastic about hanzi at one point in your post, there, and seem to
believe that alphabets are automatically always going to be better, but have you
considered that there is always a chance that people will simply learn, each in their
own languages, the hanzi for various ideas and then use that as a kind of written
Esperanto around the world which would solve the language problem even among people who
never manage to crack into learning languages the way most people here do, but are
certainly able to learn a few hundred of the hanzi, even if they use corny,
heisig/hoenig style means to do it? If there wasn't something useful about them, they
would have been replaced by pinyin and kana. But they weren't - partly because of the
levels of homophones in Chinese and Japanese, but not entirely. Korean has fewer
homophones, but still they continue their romance with hanzi.

And it is probably only a question of time before input methods like Swype make the use
of hanzi in a computer much more efficient than it is today.


I'm not really referring to a specific post with my comment about fear, more a general
current of sentiment I've felt here in the US and in some of the developing countries
that I've been lucky enough to visit. As I've already mentioned Ethiopia, I guess I can
expound on what I heard from middle-class Ethiopians there: a lot of them recognize
that their country is poor and needs foreign investment, but many people resent and
fear the Chinese influence in their country. Which was part of their motivation for
looking at the language--as a measure of economic self-protection. I've heard similar
sentiments from my Latin American friends about some of the attitudes people have there
about the Chinese investment. If there's not fear, there's at least distrust and a
sense of "Oh boy, now another group of people is going to colonize us, too."

Of course I wouldn't *like* to think that fear was a large motivator for learning
English, but that doesn't mean it wasn't. In India it was often mandated by the Raj, or
seen as the only way of surviving under the oppressive conditions. Even to this day the
Raj is gone, but a sort of economic fear is just as strong among working-class Indians
regarding English: they feel that if their kids don't learn English well enough before
a certain age, they'll never make it to the middle class. They see English as the
different between getting a job at an IT firm or a tourist shop and spending your whole
life driving an oxcart through malaria-riddled rice paddies. Since these parents don't
have the level of skill in English to pass on to their kids, they're very afraid.

Nevermind the Chicano and Native American populations in the US, where inability to
speak English and conform to Anglo standards was used as a justification for attack by
government forces, and even now attacks against Latino immigrants by gangs of teenage
thugs are on the rise.

Every place has a different situation, but as an ESL teacher who's interested in
working with underprivileged groups, I can tell you that there is still a lot of fear
involved in the rush to learn English, or at least to make your kids learn it.

And with Chinese I see some traces of the same thing. Ironically it's most "feverish"
amongst upper-middle class Americans with plenty of money already--I guess they just
don't like the competition. And I'd hate for that to be anyone's primary motivator
because in the case of Chinese I just don't see it happening.

Regarding my snark about hanzi, I'm referring to the fact that hanzi is objectively
more difficult (or at least time consuming) than any alphabet system. Even Chinese-
speaking Chinese children, immersed since birth, end up taking a few more years before
becoming basically literate than do children who learn alphabetic systems. And these
kids are going to school full time.

To ask this sort of task of 4 billion adults, most of whom have jobs to do and families
to raise, on *top* of learning another very difficult foreign language? It's just an
extra hurdle in the way. And the more time the language requires, the greater the
incentive has to be for people to bother learning it as a "requirement." Most
monolinguals are quite happy to remain so if they can.

Your point about hanzi being used as an international sort of writing is an interesting
idea, but if people are learning characters without the language, are they actually
learning Chinese? This system could work well enough for simple nouns and concepts like
"fish" and "school" and "eat" but eventually you hit a translation wall once you get
into discussing things like theories, shades of emotion, etc.

Not to mention that each person would arrange said characters in different ways,
according to the grammar of their native language. This makes character reading,
already a tough task for non-Chinese, even *more* demanding. So you'd have people
handing each other notes that read like:

"Wednesday house mine you go eat?"

"Have I things busy for. Dislike I office mine have boss angry cruel. Be Thursday you
freedom?"

While you'll (maybe) get your message across I just don't think people would enjoy
using such a system, which would be a barrier to convincing them to spend
hundreds of hours of their time learning it. And I would imagine it would
drive a lot of Chinese people insane to see their mother tongue being so abused all day
long. Not to mention the massive logistical and paradigm shift that would be required
in education all around the world to even get started on such a task. I just think that
English has too much inertia at this point, and short of some cataclismic disaster like
a meteor strike or nuclear war wiping out the West, I don't see the global ship
reversing course so fully by 2050.

So while I see your points, I guess I just don't agree with you on the plausibility. I
certainly didn't mean any offense, though. Any snarkiness on my part was probably more
directed at concerned Manhattan socialite parents who are shoving their kids into
Chinese classes without really having a shred of interest in the culture beyond their
fear of the upcoming Red Dawn.

Edited by robsolete on 14 January 2011 at 8:00pm

4 persons have voted this message useful



vilas
Pentaglot
Senior Member
Italy
Joined 6749 days ago

531 posts - 722 votes 
Speaks: Spanish, Italian*, English, French, Portuguese

 
 Message 87 of 108
14 January 2011 at 8:41pm | IP Logged 
[
But you can still get pasta anywhere. They kept that.[/QUOTE]

But it is not good pasta

Given these numbers, I'm not going to fault the Ethiopians for not buying the same
quality of pasta. Especially when they have so much awesome injera and wot lying
around. [/QUOTE]

I don't want fault the Ethiopians , nor the Americans .
I think that Ethiopians make good zighinì and americans good hamburghers.
And Italians make good pasta.


1 person has voted this message useful



Huliganov
Octoglot
Senior Member
Poland
huliganov.tvRegistered users can see my Skype Name
Joined 5144 days ago

91 posts - 304 votes 
Speaks: English*, Polish, French, German, Russian, Spanish, Esperanto, Czech
Studies: Romanian, Turkish, Mandarin, Japanese, Hungarian

 
 Message 88 of 108
14 January 2011 at 9:03pm | IP Logged 
robsolete wrote:
Your point about hanzi being used as an international sort of writing is an interesting
idea, but if people are learning characters without the language, are they actually
learning Chinese? This system could work well enough for simple nouns and concepts like
"fish" and "school" and "eat" but eventually you hit a translation wall once you get
into discussing things like theories, shades of emotion, etc.

Not to mention that each person would arrange said characters in different ways,
according to the grammar of their native language. This makes character reading,
already a tough task for non-Chinese, even *more* demanding. So you'd have people
handing each other notes that read like:

"Wednesday house mine you go eat?"

"Have I things busy for. Dislike I office mine have boss angry cruel. Be Thursday you
freedom?"

While you'll (maybe) get your message across I just don't think people would enjoy
using such a system, which would be a barrier to convincing them to spend
hundreds of hours of their time learning it. And I would imagine it would
drive a lot of Chinese people insane to see their mother tongue being so abused all day
long. Not to mention the massive logistical and paradigm shift that would be required
in education all around the world to even get started on such a task. I just think that
English has too much inertia at this point, and short of some cataclismic disaster like
a meteor strike or nuclear war wiping out the West, I don't see the global ship
reversing course so fully by 2050.


I just retained the part of your article that I want to comment further on - firstly your question whether learning Chinese characters without sounds is really learning Chinese. I should say that learning Chinese characters without sounds is the epitome of learning Chinese, whereas learning the sounds and the writing is the epitome of learning Mandarin, Cantonese, or which other Chinese language you've chosen.

Even if a person uses sentences like the ones you've given, they would be communicating far in advance of the way people normally communicate without knowing the sounds of each others' languages.

Then I just wanted to say about your not believing the world can change so much between 2010 and 2050, I dare say they would have said the same thing in 1910. Now isn't THAT a frightening thought?



3 persons have voted this message useful



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