Top 10 Languages - Rankings in 2050 (General discussion) Language Learning Forum

Top 10 Languages - Rankings in 2050
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Merv
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Message 41 of 108

08 January 2011 at 9:10am | IP Logged

dagojr wrote:

Just like the title says. What do you think will be the top 10 languages in 2050?

I know, I know. I can already hear some of the responses to this. "I think Washo is the most important language,
how could you argue otherwise?" or "This question is stupid, because who is to say that one language is more
important than another?"

Well, I understand the argument. Certainly it is very difficult to rank languages, and it of course will be highly
dependent on the methodology selected. But let's be serious now. Not to pick on Washo, but I think it's safe to
say that, for example, any reasonable person would agree that in 2050, English will be a more important
language than Washo, at least on a global scale.

I'd also like to add that I am NOT a language expert. My one and only research tool was this computer and the
internet. So if you want to call me an idiot, then go ahead. In fact, I encourage it. Just be sure to include your own
list at the end of your flame. ;) And feel free to use any methodology you want.

Anyway, I don't have an exact methodology here in making this list. I tried to combine economic strength (partly
from Goldman Sachs BRIC thesis), population size (from various population projections easily found online),
status as a lingua franca and literacy in creating this list. Below are each of my choices, along with a short
justification for each of my rankings.

1) English - the safe choice. Only Mandarin, under the best possible circumstances, could challenge its position
here. But English is more widely spoken around the world, and it's already widely used as a lingua franca, and it is
a major language in the United States and India, both predicted to be among the three biggest economies in
2050 according to Goldman Sachs. Furthermore, speakers of Indo-European languages (the largest language
family) are likely to prefer using and learning English as a language of communication over Mandarin for the
simple fact that it will be easier for them to learn.

2) Mandarin Chinese - OK, I don't think Mandarin will supplant English, I think you get my point now. But it's still
pretty darned important. It has the turbocharged Chinese economy behind it. China has the most cell phone
users, it has the most internet users, and it will easily be the largest exporter in 2050. Oh, and Mandarin Chinese
is easily the most used language in the world today.

3) Spanish - If it hasn't replaced French as the most important Romance language today, it almost certainly will
by 2050. The language is widely used in Latin America, and the region is growing and modernizing, though not
as fast as China. In the past, parts of Latin America were economically depressed or depressing, but as a whole
the region has turned the corner. That's not to say that it is without problems (two examples include poor
distribution of wealth and poor education), but it seems that the Latin American economy and population will
continue to grow, and so will the influence of Spanish.

4) Portuguese - I know, I know, some of you are probably rolling your eyes over this one, and I guess this is a bit
of a dark-horse pick. Portuguese of course is on here because it is the language of Brazil. In the past, it has faced
many of the same problems that Spanish had, which are already mentioned above. But Brazil, at least for now, is
experiencing robust economic growth, and its population continues to grow. It's also spoken in parts of Europe,
Southern Africa, and Asia, though it certainly doesn't have the global lingua franca status of, say, English or
French, but I think the large Portuguese-speaking population and its economic growth make up for this. With
that said though, I won't be terribly surprised if, come 2050, Portuguese's influence doesn't manifest.

5) Russian - OK, OK, that's two unconventional picks in a row, but I believe I can justify this one too. Russian
does have several factors working against it. Its population is declining, the economies of many Russian-
speaking countries took a big hit in the 90s, and many are skeptical about the prospects of these countries ever
fully recovering (though not all agree, as it is the R in the BRIC). But there are several factors working it its favor.
Russian-speaking areas cover a lot of, well, area. There are a lot of natural resources, including oil and, in
particular, natural gas. Also, there are still a lot of people who speak Russian and it's still used as a lingua franca
in former Soviet states. Russian speakers are well-educated (collectively speaking, when compared to, say,
Bengali or Arabic speakers), and under the right circumstances, they would be ready to participate in a modern
post-industrial world.

6) Arabic - I can't decide if Arabic is too high, too low, or in just the right spot on this list. Much of the
population is illiterate, and many only speak a local dialect (a much-cited example is that Moroccan Arabic
speakers usually cannot communicate with Levantine Arabic speakers). Parts of the Arabic-speaking world are
flush with oil money, but most Arabic speakers are still poor. But Arabic in its various forms is still widely
spoken, and it is the official language of many countries, many of which have rapidly-growing populations. Even
if it is only spoken well by the well-educated, Modern Standard Arabic is used in many countries, and if
education becomes more available by 2050, a more standardized, widely-used form of Arabic might emerge.

7) Hindi - One of the most-spoken languages in the world. Since it is primarily spoken only in the Indian
subcontinent, it doesn't have much use as a lingua franca outside of India. In fact, even in India itself, English is
often used as a lingua franca instead. Furthermore many Hindi speakers are also illiterate and poor. However,
India is experiencing high economic growth, and will be one of the biggest economies in the world in 2050.
Urdu, which is mutually intelligible with Hindi, is also a widely-spoken language and important in Pakistan.

8) Malay/Indonesian - Another unconventional pick. A widely-used language in Southeastern Asia. It has a large
population base, and while Indonesia is a young democracy, it appears to be stable for now, and the country
appears to be laying the groundwork for robust economic growth. It is also widely spoken in areas outside of
Malaysia and Indonesia. As with Portuguese and Brazil, the importance Indonesian is highly dependent on
Indonesia itself.

9)French - The decline of the status of the French language in the past few decades is well known, but it's still a
very important language, and will continue to be. It's the official language in dozens of countries, but the
majority of these are poor and economically depressed, and show little potential for growth. France is a large,
important economy today, and it will continue to be, but other growing economies (China, India, Brazil, Mexico,
just to name a few) are likely to shrink its relative importance. It is ranked higher than German primarily because
of its status as a lingua franca.

10) German - It's influence is essentially isolated to Europe, and the German-speaking population is declining,
but Germany is currently the most-spoken language in the European Union and the biggest economy in Europe,
and that has to count for something. However, since so many German speakers also speak English well, this
somewhat diminishes the value of learning German, and hence diminishes the importance of the German
language.

I won't write much here, but I'll break it into three groups:

1.) The indisputable lingua franca: English, which is also an important category 2 language

2.) Important continental languages: Spanish and Portuguese (South, North America), Arabic (Middle East, North
Africa), Russian (Eurasia), Mandarin (East Asia). English is a vital continental language in North America, Europe,
the Indian subcontinent, and will increasingly become a language of communication in east Asia.

3.) Less dominant regional languages, but important for their cultural prestige, history, and number of speakers:
French, Italian, German, Turkish, Hindi-Urdu, Bengali, Marathi, Korean, Japanese.
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maxval
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Message 42 of 108

08 January 2011 at 6:09pm | IP Logged

Top 10 languages by number of all speakers in 2050 will be IMO:

1. English,

2. Chinese,

3. Hindi / Urdu,

4. Arab,

5. Spanish,

6. Bengali,

7. French,

8. Indonesian / Malaysian,

9. Portuguese,

10. Telugu.
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Martin M
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Studies: Spanish

Message 43 of 108

08 January 2011 at 6:23pm | IP Logged

About Mandarin Chinese:

While there may be a billion native speakers and a lot of internet users, people seem to be missing a major point: There are something like 12 websites available to the Chinese uncensored (see theonion.com for fact-checking on this point). Just as Gutenberg's press did a lot to promote the use of the vulgate and spread scientific knowledge, the internet is causing such a revolution today. As English is the dominant language of the internet, it has a major advantage. And due to the Chinese government censoring the internet (Google Tibet from mainland China and try to find something positive about the Dalai Lama; or, Google Chinese Nobel; or, Google Tiananmen square; or Google Uighur rebellion [and post your results here once you escape the Chinese authorities]).

So, not only does the Chinese Internet Kill Switch handicap the spread of the use of the Chinese language, but their Cell and Text Kill Switch interrupts the flow of Chinese on a daily basis. One of my students experienced the Cell/Text kill switch and told me people were driving for hours to another country just to make calls. You can't make this stuff up.

Martin
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Juаn
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Message 44 of 108

08 January 2011 at 6:34pm | IP Logged

1. Chinese
2. English
3. Spanish
4. Hindi
5. Arabic
6. Portuguese
7. Japanese
8. Indonesian
9. Russian
10. French

Edited by Juаn on 08 January 2011 at 6:49pm
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Cyrus
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Speaks: French*, English
Studies: German, Spanish, Mandarin

Message 45 of 108

08 January 2011 at 8:05pm | IP Logged

Interesting topic...
But honestly, 2050 is quite too far so that we can anticipate anything... For example, if this question would have
been asked in the 60s (for 2010), even the experts would have claim that russian in 2010 would be the most
important language with English, and nobody would have think of mandarin. In 2050, imagine a world war won
by China is as justifiable as an asia dominated by India since China floundered in 2020 into a crisis deeper than
Japan's did in the 90', or that a tenth big crisis eventually make the american power collapsing.
We can, however, expect reasonably for 2020-2025.
I found an interesting article on the most influent languages today, and how their influence are going to evolve.
Most important languages by
G.Weber

It is quite good, although I really do not think that french is still the second most influential language (I would
have ranked it at least 5th, behind English, Mandarin, Spanish, Arabic, and at most 9th, behind Russian, German,
Japanese and Portuguese) and it is quite stunning that Russian is not behind Mandarin...

Another good indicator is the most spoken languages on internet. When someone is able to go on internet, you
can consider that he is quite integrated in the modern world, and so that he mays influence it. As an example,
Bengali is perhaps one of the 6 most spoken languages in the world, but everyone would agreed that it is a less
important language for business, technology, and a less influent culture (I am just talking of influence, not
importance or value) than German. As a result it is very far behind German in the internet languages.

Most important internet languages

Of course that is not enough : I do not consider Japanese as the 4th most important language in the world. But it
is a good indicator.

Another one is the GDP (in purchasing parity power I think, means calculated with considering the variations of
prices throughout the world) by language.

Always, you can notice that in the ten first languages of every list I posted, 9 languages are recurrent : English,
mandarin, Spanish, arabic, french, russian, japanese and portuguese. I think that we can reasonably considering
them today as the most influent languages of the world, ranking English first, Mandarin, Spanish 3rd or 2nd, and
the other ones in a third level.

gdp by language

Then, I think that the only language which is able to join the group by 2020-2025 is Hindi-Urdu. Today, the
language suffers a great lack of influence since it is concentrated in north India and Pakistan. What's more, it is
oppressed by English and rejected by every non-hindi speaking regions in India, and the most developed parts of
india are not hindi speaking countries (except New Delhi).
But things might change, if India government really wants it. And do not forget that the great majority of Indian
Bollywood movies are made in Hindi. With the economic growth of India, Hindi can evolve in a very important
language.

However, I really do not think that Indonesian will be an important language. Indonesia economy is rising, that is
true, but it leaves from very low, the growth is weak (4-6 %) compared to India or China, the country does not
possess important resources ; and serious reports indicate that Chinese living in Indonesia own 80% of the
nation's wealth (Agence France Presse, 01/15/96). No, Indonesian is not going to be an influent language at all.

My order for 2025 :
-English
-Mandarin
-Spanish
-Arabic
-French (national subjectivity, héhéhé)
-Russian
-Portuguese
-German
-Japanese
-Hindi (...somewhere up there ?)

Have a nice d@y
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dbruggeman
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Message 46 of 108

08 January 2011 at 8:26pm | IP Logged

I would like to see more debate over positions 4 and 5 since learning 10 languages is not
possible. I am assuming English, Spanish, and Chinese for 1-3.

I would say:
* Portuguese
* French
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SSalvestrini
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Message 47 of 108

09 January 2011 at 2:43am | IP Logged

I still fail to understand why everyone thinks Mandarin will be so important...

And also, I actually have Googled "Tienanmen Square", "Tibet", etc. in mainland China
(a few times in Shanghai, in Xi'an, and then some random, very small city).
Surprisingly enough, I didn't find anything that was censored. Google images had
hundreds of pictures of the Tienanmen Square massacre.

But without a doubt it's monitored.

Edited by SSalvestrini on 09 January 2011 at 2:48am
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Martin M
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Studies: Spanish

Message 48 of 108

09 January 2011 at 3:48am | IP Logged

About Googling in mainland China: I just remember reading in The Economist that when they Googled those terms the sites did not include any mention of any negative action by the government. There is no mention of Tibet being invaded, the Nobel Prize going to a political dissdent was sanitized from Google in China.

Also, they have executed the internet kill switch on multiple occasions. My point is that the Chinese government is standing in the way of the free flow of information in China and, by not including China fully on the internet, is not allowing the Chinese language to flourish in terms of numbers of users.

I apologize if this seems an attack on China. I don't mean it to be. It's just that the censorship by the Chinese government is something the forum users are not mentioning. When I first read someone propose Chinese would be the language of the internet by 2020, I had to laugh. There are many sites you cannot visit using a Chinese internet provider. Without access to the entire internet, the Chinese and their language will not be able to dominate it.

This said, I do believe Chinese is an important language. For it to top English will take a great change in the attitude of the Chinese government. Also, the strong urge to conform culturally (rather than to innovate) will also be a hindrance to the global rise of the Chinese language. While their "hard power" is waxing, their "soft power" is not.

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